Both if the CBOE future expired and from now on, when the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there is an amazing loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and that i would guess that they are covered with one single liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is usually short the long run and maybe long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if the prices are low where you can border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which can be easy to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a tender using a small volume generally.
CME’s model is better, but nonetheless not as good, VWAP on the four major exchanges is a good idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on such a brief time period is incredibly limited. Even if many large participants may have interests in almost any of such settlement processes they’d almost certainly have the identical position and gains advantage from the identical side from the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is we likely will discover a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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